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【beister球员】《炉石传说》NPe专家赛制环境报告第17期:鲨鱼贼疯狂碾压

作者:NGA-Zelknow

NoProsHere战队专家比赛环境报告是一份名为专家比赛的比赛环境观察的新报告。

战队负责人:Gamble,炉石竞技组成员:ecoutepasca,SKItLLeZ

周报作者:ecoutepasca, WickedGood

谢绝私自转载,如有需求请联系炉石区工作人员。

综合: [Zelknow]

当所有人的目光都集中在特级大师联赛第一赛季季后赛的时候,布加勒斯特大师资格赛第二周的比赛也已落下帷幕。但主导两场比赛的环境的,还是那几个套牌。

综述

几套顶级套牌看上去混得风生水起。鲨鱼贼、炸弹战和奇迹法占据了一半以上的出场率分布,八强中更是到了60%。我们在过去的几期里讨论了它们剪刀石头布的关系,而目前看来还没有什么新的构筑可以破坏这种平衡。

鲨鱼贼是前三的套牌中出场率最高的一个,在每一场比赛中都占有25%的出场率,而36个获得资格的选手中,就有14个是靠鲨鱼贼赢下比赛的。它拥有前三套牌中最平衡的对阵胜率分布,并有机会依靠随机获得的卡牌赢下任何一场对局。这也是它能够在这样一个固化的环境中取得成功的重要原因。

奇迹法依然是抓炸弹战的主力选手。而它与盗贼对阵的劣势也在逐渐搬回,得益于像中场拾荒者这样的新组件,它使得奇迹法能够在对局中期就在场面上组织起威胁,同时还能够叠甲并为下回合的咒术师的召唤提供目标。( 但是要是能分裂巨人也不错 )它在本周的特级大师联赛中表现非常不错,但是总体50%胜率和八强48%胜率说明它还是一个炉石水平的试金石。

尽管有着相当极端的对局分布,但是炸弹战还是继续在资格赛中出现。鲨鱼贼的泛滥依然是带炸弹战的一个理由,因为这样1/4的对局都是优势对局,而15%的对局是内战。它不太可能很快消失。

两套猎人套牌在本周的表现都不太好,尤其是中速猎,它总体胜率为47%,而在八强中这个数字跌到了少得可怜的29%。机械猎的表现好一些(总体胜率为52%,八强中胜率为63%)。但在143人中,只有5位选手拿它打进了8强。这两套牌将继续在环境中存在,因为对那些去别的服打比赛的选手来说,它们相对便宜一点。但是对于那些全卡玩家,更应该考虑前面的三套。

萨满在本周表现令人惊喜!鱼人萨和快攻萨(过载/风怒锤)都取得了资格。但这两套牌的对阵胜率分布恰好相反:鱼人萨打战士的胜率像模像样,但遇到法师和盗贼就难以生存;然而快攻萨难打战士却对法贼是优势。虽然样本量比较小,但是这两套牌都值得我们继续关注。

兔兔贼跳进了流行套牌里面,这得感谢Fr0zen将它带到了特级大师季后赛中,并且由于带错牌而输掉了本来该赢的半决赛。初步的统计数据表示它只能对战士有优势并且打不过法师和鲨鱼贼(因为它的目标就是抓慢速,而鲨鱼贼速度比它更快,法师则可以冰住兔兔并且铺一地巨人),但我们还是需要更多的数据去得出进一步的结论。

至于过去几周值得关注的其他套牌,防战仍然没有任何资本和炸弹战比拼,并且和元气骑一样,它们打任何主流的套牌都占不到什么便宜。与此同时,机械骑、节奏贼和奥秘猎在整体上表现都很出色(52%-54%的胜率),但尽管它们打进过一两次八强,但却未能取得资格。开发这些套牌可能会有好处,但由于这三套牌加起来样本量才50左右,我们还没有足够的数据去分析这些卡组。

Tier List

参考卡组

Surrender鲨鱼贼

主套牌AAECAaIHCJwCsgLNA68EiAeggAOSlwOftwMLtAHtAt0I7/ECx/gCtIYDtJEDj5cDkJcD/poDiZsDAA==

备牌一AAECAaIHCJwCsgKkA68E7/ECoIADkpcDn7cDC7QB7QLH+ALRgAPMgQO0hgO0kQOPlwOQlwP+mgOJmwMA

备牌二AAECAaIHCJoCsgLNA68EiAfv8QK0kQOSlwMLtAHtAuEE3QjH+AK0hgPOjAOPlwOQlwP+mgOJmwMA

MrYagut鲨鱼贼

主套牌AAECAaIHBpwCsgKvBKCAA5KXA5+3Awy0Ae0CzQPdCO/xAsf4ArSGA7SRA4+XA5CXA/6aA4mbAwA=

备牌一AAECAaIHCJoCnAKyAs0DrwS0kQOSlwOJmwMLtAHtAuEE3Qjv8QLH+AK0hgPOjAOPlwOQlwP+mgMA

备牌二AAECAaIHCpwCsgKkA68EkAfH+AKggAOSlwPanQOftwMKtAHtAt0I7/ECtIYDr5EDtJEDj5cDkJcD/poDAA==

Fire鲨鱼贼

主套牌AAECAaIHCLICzQOvBIYJ5/oCoIADkpcDn7cDC7QBnALtAogH3Qim7wLv8QK0hgO0kQOPlwOJmwMA

备牌一AAECAaIHCJwCsgKvBOf6AqCAA5CXA5KXA5+3Awu0Ae0CiAem7wLv8QLRgAPMgQO0hgO0kQOPlwOJmwMA

备牌二AAECAaIHCJoCsgLNA68Ehgnv8QLn+gKSlwMLtAGcAu0C4QSIB90Ipu8CtIYDzowDj5cDiZsDAA==

Purple炸弹战

主套牌AAECAQcMS/IFkAf7DJ3wAvT1ApL4AoP7AqCAA5uUA4adA5+3AwmiBP8Hm/MC0fUCnvsCs/wCl5QDmpQDkp8DAA==

备牌一AAECAQcMS5AHnfACm/MC9PUCkvgCoIADwI8Dm5QDhp0D2p0Dn7cDCZ8DogT/B9H1AoP7Ap77ApeUA5qUA5KfAwA=

备牌二AAECAQcK8gX5DPsMnfACkvgCg/sCjvsCoIADm5QDn7cDCkuiBP8Hm/MC0fUCnvsC9YADl5QDmpQDkp8DAA==

Beister炸弹战

主套牌AAECAQcG8gWS+AKggAOblAOSnwOftwMMS6IE/wed8AKb8wLR9QKD+wKe+wKz/AL1gAOXlAOalAMA

备牌一AAECAQcMS6QDogTyBZAHm/MCkvgCoIADm5QDhp0Dkp8Dn7cDCZ3wAtH1AoP7Ap77ArP8AvH8AvWAA5eUA5qUAwA=

备牌二AAECAQcGkvgCs/wCoIADm5QDkp8Dn7cDDEuiBPIF/wf5DJ3wApvzAtH1Ao77AvWAA5eUA5qUAwA=

Fenomeno奇迹法

主套牌AAECAf0EBrgInvAC7vYCxvgCoIADlpoDDNMBqwTLBOYE4Qe8CMiHA9KJA4OWA5+bA+KbA/+dAwA=

备牌一AAECAf0EBp7wAu72Asb4AqCAA9KJA5aaAwzTAasEywTmBOEHvAiZ/wLIhwODlgOfmwPimwP/nQMA

备牌二AAECAf0ECqQDkAe4CLwInvAC7vYCxvgCoIADlpoDn7cDCqsE5gThB40IyIcD0okDg5YDn5sD4psD/50DAA==

PNC奇迹法

主套牌AAECAf0ECtMBlgW4CO72Asb4Apn/AqCAA9KJA5aaA5+3AwqrBMsE5gThB7wIyIcDg5YDn5sD4psD/50DAA==

备牌一AAECAf0EDKQDxQSWBZAHuAi8CO72Asb4AqCAA9KJA5aaA5+3AwmrBOYE4QeNCMiHA4OWA5+bA+KbA/+dAwA=

备牌二AAECAf0ECNMByQOXBrgIvAju9gLG+AKWmgMLqwTLBOYE4QfN9QLIhwPSiQODlgOfmwPimwP/nQMA

Kuonet奇迹法

主套牌AAECAf0EBrgInvAC7vYCxvgCoIADlpoDDNMBqwTLBOYE4Qe8CMiHA9KJA4OWA5+bA+KbA/+dAwA=

备牌一AAECAf0ECJAHuAi8CJ7wAu72Asb4AqCAA5aaAwurBOYE4QeNCMP4AsiHA9KJA4OWA5+bA+KbA/+dAwA=

备牌二AAECAf0EBu72Asb4AqCAA9KJA5aaA5+3AwzTAasEywTmBOEHvAiZ/wLIhwODlgOfmwPimwP/nQMA

Sialed机械猎

主套牌AAECAR8ErwTg9QKggAOftwMNlwji9QLv9QK09gK5+AKR+wKY+wKo+wL2/QLX/gKJgAPMgQO2nAMA

备牌一AAECAR8ErwTg9QKggAOftwMNlwji9QLv9QK5+AKR+wKY+wKo+wL2/QLX/gKJgAPRgAPMgQO2nAMA

备牌二AAECAR8ErwSggAPylgOftwMNlwji9QLv9QK09gK5+AKR+wKY+wKo+wLX/gKJgAPRgAPMgQO2nAMA

giveme80gold鱼人萨

主套牌AAECAaoIBKfuAu/3ArmZA5+3Aw3FA9sD/gPQB6cIkwniiQOMlAO1mAO/mAPGmQP0mQPHnQMA

备牌一AAECAaoIBP4Dp+4CuZkDn7cDDcUD2wP+BdAHpwiTCeKJA4yUA7WYA7+YA8aZA/SZA8edAwA=

备牌二AAECAaoIBJMJp+4CuZkDn7cDDcUD2wP+A/8F0AenCOKJA4yUA7WYA7+YA8aZA/SZA8edAwA=

Drujbanul快攻萨

主套牌AAECAaoIAu4BioUDDu8B4ALbA/kD/wXgBrDwAvbwAo/7Apz/AoyFA/aKA4yUA8aZAwA=

备牌一AAECAaoIAu4BioUDDu8B4AL5A/8F4Aaw8AL28AKP+wL6/gKb/wKc/wKMhQP2igPGmQMA

备牌二AAECAaoIAu4BioUDDu8B4AL5A/8F4Aaw8AL28AKP+wKb/wKc/wKMhQPliQP2igPGmQMA

Fr0zen兔兔贼

主套牌AAECAaIHDLICvQTtBZAHhgnn+gKggAO0hgPOjAOSlwO9mQOftwMJtAGcAu0CmwWm8ALX+gLg+gK0kQOPlwMA

备牌一AAECAaIHCpoCsgK9BO0Fhgnn+gKggAPOjAO9mQOftwMKtAGcAu0CmwWXBogHpvAC1/oC4PoCj5cDAA==

备牌二AAECAaIHDLICrwS9BO0FkAeGCef6AqCAA7SGA72ZA4mbA5+3Awm0AZwC7QKbBabwAu/xAtf6AuD6Ao+XAwA=

Matty兔兔贼

主套牌AAECAaIHCLICzQOvBO0F5/oCoIADvZkDn7cDC7QBnALtApsFiAeGCabwAtf6AuD6Ao+XA4mbAwA=

备牌一AAECAaIHDrICzQO9BO0FkAeGCef6ApSAA6CAA6+RA72ZA4mbA9qdA5+3Awi0AZwC7QKbBabwAtf6AuD6Ao+XAwA=

备牌二AAECAaIHCJoCsgKbBe0F5/oCoIADvZkDiZsDC7QBnALtApcGiAeGCabwAtf6AuD6As6MA4+XAwA=

LegBack兔兔贼

主套牌AAECAaIHCLIC7QXn+gKggAOvkQO9mQPanQOftwMLtAGcAu0CzQO9BJsFhgmm8ALX+gLg+gKPlwMA

备牌一AAECAaIHCLQBsgLtBef6AqCAA6+RA72ZA9qdAwuaApwC7QLNA70EmwWGCabwAtf6AuD6As6MAwA=

备牌二AAECAaIHCLICzQOKB5AH5/oCoIADvZkDn7cDC7QBnALtAr0EmwWIB4YJpvAC1/oC4PoCj5cDAA==

ClouDy中速猎

主套牌AAECAR8GuwWbhQOwiwPXjwPmlgP5lgMMqAK1A94ElwjFCNsJgQr27ALJ+AKghQOkiAOenQMA

备牌一AAECAR8E3gS7BdsJm4UDDagCtQOXCMUI7QmBCvbsAsn4AqCFA6SIA+aWA/mWA56dAwA=

备牌二AAECAR8GxwOXCJjwApuFA/mWA56dAwyoArUD3gTFCNsJgQr27ALJ+AKghQOkiAOwiwPmlgMA

Mick中速猎

主套牌AAECAR8EuwWbhQOwiwPmlgMNqAK1A94ElwjFCNsJgQr27ALJ+AKghQOkiAP5lgOenQMA

备牌一AAECAR8EuwXbCZuFA+aWAw2oArUD3gSXCMUI7QmBCvbsAsn4AqCFA6SIA/mWA56dAwA=

备牌二AAECAR8ExwOXCJjwApuFAw2oArUD3gTFCNsJgQr27ALJ+AKghQOkiAPmlgP5lgOenQMA

Greg27宿敌贼

主套牌AAECAaIHBrICzQOvBN0IoIADkpcDDLQBnALtAu/xArSGA7SRA4+XA5CXA6iYA/uaA/6aA4mbAwA=

备牌一AAECAaIHCrQBsgKkA80DrwSQB90IoIADkpcDn7cDCpwC7QLv8QK0hgOvkQO0kQOPlwOQlwP+mgOJmwMA

备牌二AAECAaIHCJoCsgLNA68E3Qjv8QKSlwOJmwMLtAHtAuEEtIYDzowDtJEDj5cDkJcDqJgD+5oD/poDAA==

Korangar宿敌贼

主套牌AAECAaIHCpwCsgLNA68EiAeggAOQlwOSlwOomAOftwMKtAHtAt0I7/ECx/gCtIYDtJEDj5cD/poDiZsDAA==

备牌一AAECAaIHDpoCnAKyAs0DrwSIB+/xAs6MA7SRA5CXA5KXA6iYA/uaA4mbAwi0Ae0C4QTdCMf4ArSGA4+XA/6aAwA=

备牌二AAECAaIHCpwCsgKkA68E7/ECoIADkJcDkpcDqJgDn7cDCrQB7QLdCMf4AtGAA8yBA7SGA7SRA4+XA/6aAwA=

Magirl防战

主套牌AAECAQcI8gWQB/kMkvgCjvsCoIADhp0Dn7cDC0uiBP8HnfACm/MC0fUC9PUCg/sCnvsCs/wCkp8DAA==

备牌一AAECAQcMS58DpAPyBZAHm/MCkvgCjvsCoIAD0pgDhp0Dn7cDCaIE/wed8ALR9QL09QKD+wKe+wKVlAOSnwMA

备牌二AAECAQcG8gWRBpL4ApSAA6CAA5+3AwxLogT/B/kMnfACm/MC0fUCg/sCjvsCnvsCs/wCkp8DAA==

Xeno防战

主套牌AAECAQcIkAf5DPT1ApL4Ao77AqCAA4adA5+3AwtLogTyBf8HnfACm/MC0fUCg/sCnvsCs/wCkp8DAA==

备牌一AAECAQcGkAeyCPT1ApL4AqCAA5+3AwxLogKiBPIF/wed8AKb8wLR9QKD+wKz/AKUgAOSnwMA

备牌二AAECAQcI8gWQB/T1ApL4AqCAA5uUA4adA5+3AwuiBP8HnfACm/MC0fUCg/sCnvsCs/wCl5QDmpQDkp8DAA==

Eddie元气骑

主套牌AAECAZ8FCPoBhQPtBfQF+wz9+wKggAO9hgMLnAKzA9wDzwb2B6f3AoT8Avz8Atn+As+GA+yGAwA=

备牌一AAECAZ8FBoUDswPtBaf3Av37Ar2GAwz6AZwC3AP0Bc8G9gf7DIT8Avz8Atn+As+GA+yGAwA=

备牌二AAECAZ8FDvoBhQPcA/YH+wy09gL9+wLx/gKRgAOggAO9hgPPhgPmhgOLigMInAKzA88Gp/cChPwC/PwC2f4C7IYDAA==

Lethal元气骑

主套牌AAECAZ8FCPoBhQPtBfQF+wz9+wKggAO9hgMLnAKzA9wDzwb2B6f3AoT8Avz8Atn+As+GA+yGAwA=

备牌一AAECAZ8FCPoBhQOzA+0Fp/cC/fsCoIADvYYDC5wC3AP0Bc8G9gf7DIT8Avz8Atn+As+GA+yGAwA=

备牌二AAECAZ8FDvoBhQPcA/YH+wy09gL9+wLx/gKRgAOggAO9hgPPhgPmhgOLigMInAKzA88Gp/cChPwC/PwC2f4C7IYDAA==

Tomas机械骑

主套牌AAECAZ8FCPIFigfL7ALx/gKggAOKmgO0mwOftwMLzwaf9QKl9QL8/ALW/gLX/gLZ/gLd/gLh/gKRgAPMgQMA

备牌一AAECAZ8FCIoH1/4C8f4CoIADi4oDipoDtJsDn7cDC5MEzwaf9QK09gL8/ALW/gLZ/gLd/gLh/gKRgAPMgQMA

备牌二AAECAZ8FCIoH2wrx/gKRgAOggAPMgQOKmgOftwMLzwaPCcvsAp/1AqX1Avz8Atb+Atf+Atn+At3+AuH+AgA=

bobbyex节奏贼

主套牌AAECAaIHBrIC7QLNA68E5/oC1YwDDLQBywPhBMYF1AXuBogH3QiGCe/xAo+XA4mbAwA=

备牌一AAECAaIHBrQBsgKvBOf6AtWMA5+3AwzLA+EE1AXuBogH3QiGCe/xAtGAA8yBA4+XA4mbAwA=

备牌二AAECAaIHBowCsgLtAq8E5/oC1YwDDMsDzQPhBMYF1AXuBogHhgmm7wLv8QKPlwOJmwMA

Sattors奥秘猎

主套牌AAECAR8IxwOHBMkE2wn+DKCAA6eCA5uFAwueAagCtQOuBsUImPAC9YkDoooD5pYD+ZYD05gDAA==

备牌一AAECAR8KxwOHBMkErgb+DO/xAoDzAqCAA6eCA5uFAwqeAagCtQPFCNsJmPAC9YkDoooD+ZYD05gDAA==

备牌二AAECAR8KxwOHBMUI/gzJ+AKnggObhQOiigPylgOftwMKngGoArUDrgbtCZjwAvWJA+aWA/mWA9OYAwA=

ZhangFei奥秘猎

主套牌AAECAR8KxwPJBK4GxQjbCaCAA6eCA5uFA6KKA/mWAwqeAagCtQOHBP4MmPAC7/EC9YkD5pYDvpgDAA==

备牌一AAECAR8KpAPHA8kErgaQB5cIp4IDm4UDoooDn7cDCp4BtQOHBP4MmPAC7/EC9YkD5pYD+ZYDvpgDAA==

备牌二AAECAR8K0AKHBMkErgaggAOnggObhQOiigPmlgP5lgMKngG1A8cD2wn+DJjwAu/xAtuJA/WJA76YAwA=

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